Political Meta Polls: GOP 2012 Presidential Nomination Meta Poll
Cain - 22.8%
Romney - 21.9%
Perry - 13.6%
Paul - 8.0%
Gingrich - 7.9%
Bachmann - 4.3%
Huntsman - 1.9%
Santorum - 1.9%
Margin of Error = +/-1.38%
Note: Since the margin of error is plus or minus 1.38%, any two contenders within 2.76% of each other are statistically tied. Thus, Cain and Romney are tied, Paul and Gingrich are tied, and Bachmann, Santorum, and Huntsman are tied. Also note that the margin of error is incredibly small at merely 1.5% due to the nature of meta polling. Without getting into the statistical calculations, in essence two averaged polls typically breeds a poll more accurate than either source poll (rendering a hybridization effect). For those interested, it is found by first taking the square root of the sum of the squares of each poll's absolute value of its margin of error and setting that answer to x. Then you take x and divide it by the number of averaged polls.
Source Polls:
Bachmann-Cain-Gingrich-Huntsman-Paul-Perry-Romney-Santorum
4 - 29 - 10 - 2 - 5 - 9 - 29 - 2 - [Rasmussen (10/12 - 10/12) 1000 LV; moe 3.1%]
5 - 27 - 8 - 3 - 11 - 16 - 23 - 1 - [NBC News (10/6 - 10/10) 336 RV; moe 5.35%]
5 - 30 - 15 - 2 - 5 - 14 - 22 - 1 - [PPP (9/22 - 10/10) 484 LV; moe 4.45%]
4 - 16 - 3 - 0 - 6 - 13 - 24 - 1 - [Bloomberg (10/6 - 10/9) 391 A; moe 4.96%]
5 - 18 - 7 - 2 - 8 - 15 - 20 - 3 - [Gallup (10/3 - 10/7) 1064 A; moe 3.00%]
3 - 38 - 4 - 4 - 12 - 12 - 18 - 1 - [Zogby (10/3 - 10/5) 796 RV; moe 3.47%]
6 - 13 - 8 - 1 - 12 - 17 - 22 - 2 - [Pew Rsch (9/22 - 10/4) 876 RV; moe 3.31%]
3 - 17 - 8 - 1 - 6 - 14 - 22 - 3 - [Quinnipiac (9/27 - 10/3) 927 RV; moe 3.22%]
4 - 17 - 8 - 2 - 7 - 12 - 17 - 3 - [CBS News (9/28 - 10/2) 324 RV; moe 5.44%]
Note: Source polls are composed of all major polls that ended within the previous two weeks found polling the same issue that include a reported margin of error or calculable margin of error (i.e. reported polling size). Margin of error reported here is based on reported polling size out of 235 million (approximate number of Americans of voting age).
